气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GB006393
	Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates
	Bastos A.; O'Sullivan M.; Ciais P.; Makowski D.; Sitch S.; Friedlingstein P.; Chevallier F.; Rödenbeck C.; Pongratz J.; Luijkx I.T.; Patra P.K.; Peylin P.; Canadell J.G.; Lauerwald R.; Li W.; Smith N.E.; Peters W.; Goll D.S.; Jain A.K.; Kato E.; Lienert S.; Lombardozzi D.L.; Haverd V.; Nabel J.E.M.S.; Poulter B.; Tian H.; Walker A.P.; Zaehle S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0886-6236
EISSN	1944-9224
卷号	34 期号:2
英文摘要	The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South America and Southeast Asia. We identify key needs to reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets: reducing uncertainty in atmospheric inversions (e.g., through more observations in the tropics) and in land use change fluxes, including more land use processes and evaluating land use transitions (e.g., using high-resolution remote-sensing), and, finally, improving tropical hydroecological processes and fire representation within DGVMs. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	atmospheric inversions; carbon cycle; dynamic global vegetation models; global carbon budget
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon budget; carbon cycle; carbon dioxide; ecological modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; fossil fuel; land use change; net ecosystem production; Brazil; South America; Southeast Asia
来源期刊	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129665
作者单位	Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität, München, Germany; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; University Paris-Saclay, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR 211, Thiverval-Grignon, France; CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Department of Geoscience, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Eart...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bastos A.,O'Sullivan M.,Ciais P.,et al. Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates[J],2020,34(2).
APA	Bastos A..,O'Sullivan M..,Ciais P..,Makowski D..,Sitch S..,...&Zaehle S..(2020).Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,34(2).
MLA	Bastos A.,et al."Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates".Global Biogeochemical Cycles 34.2(2020).