气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019GB006383
	Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model
	Di Vittorio A.V.; Shi X.; Bond-Lamberty B.; Calvin K.; Jones A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0886-6236
EISSN	1944-9224
卷号	34 期号:5
英文摘要	Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of −0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	carbon; climate; ESM; land cover; land use; uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon; carbon cycle; global climate; land cover; land use; simulation; temperature effect; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129650
作者单位	Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College ParkMD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Di Vittorio A.V.,Shi X.,Bond-Lamberty B.,et al. Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model[J],2020,34(5).
APA	Di Vittorio A.V.,Shi X.,Bond-Lamberty B.,Calvin K.,&Jones A..(2020).Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,34(5).
MLA	Di Vittorio A.V.,et al."Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model".Global Biogeochemical Cycles 34.5(2020).