气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: A conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/su12030777
	Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: A conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan
	Korkovelos A.; Mentis D.; Bazilian M.; Howells M.; Saraj A.; Hotaki S.F.; Missfeldt-Ringius F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20711050
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very diffcult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030. © 2020 by the authors.
英文关键词	Afghanistan; Conflict; Geographic information systems (GIS); Geospatial electrification; OnSSET
scopus关键词	cost analysis; electrification; GIS; infrastructure planning; optimization; parameterization; periurban area; rural area; security; smart grid; violence; Afghanistan
来源期刊	Sustainability (Switzerland)
来源机构	世界资源研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/125943
作者单位	Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, Stockholm, 100 44, Sweden; World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, 20002, United States; Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO, 80 401, United States; Department of Geography, Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) Program, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom; Geomatics and Engineering Department, Kabul Polytechnic University, Bagh-e-Bala Road, 5th District, Kabul, 1010, Afghanistan; The World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 40433, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Korkovelos A.,Mentis D.,Bazilian M.,et al. Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: A conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan[J]. 世界资源研究所,2020,12(3).
APA	Korkovelos A..,Mentis D..,Bazilian M..,Howells M..,Saraj A..,...&Missfeldt-Ringius F..(2020).Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: A conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan.Sustainability (Switzerland),12(3).
MLA	Korkovelos A.,et al."Supporting electrification policy in fragile states: A conflict-adjusted geospatial least cost approach for Afghanistan".Sustainability (Switzerland) 12.3(2020).