气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111239
	When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles
	Hidayatno A.; Jafino B.A.; Setiawan A.D.; Purwanto W.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	138
英文摘要	Natural gas vehicles (NGV) face significant adoption barriers in Jakarta. Therefore, a successful transition requires measures from the government. Owing to the high cost of transition policies, the efficacy of these policies must be analyzed to identify the most effective policy. The implementation of transition policies, however, could dynamically influence people's perception and behavior, which then changes the landscape of adoption barriers. Furthermore, even a seemingly successful policy may fail when a certain pathway of uncertainties emerges in the future. To address these concerns, we integrated agent-based modeling, exploratory modeling, and diffusion of innovation theory into the exploratory model-based diffusion analysis approach. This approach evaluates the policy's performance, explores changes in the relative importance of different adoption barriers, and identifies policy vulnerabilities, i.e., scenarios leading to policy failures. We tested this approach on four NGV transition policies targeting three adoption barriers. We found that the importance of adoption barriers and the critical uncertainties upon the implemented policies. The social–behavioral barrier predominates under current conditions, whereas the economic factor becomes more relevant when all policies are executed. Understanding the changes in adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities will help decision-makers to prepare additional measures that ensure a successful transition. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Adoption barriers; Exploratory modelling; Natural gas vehicles; Policy vulnerabilities; Technology diffusion
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Automobiles; Autonomous agents; Behavioral research; Computational methods; Decision making; Natural gas; Adoption barriers; Agent-based model; Decision makers; Diffusion analysis; Diffusion of innovation theory; Economic factors; Model-based identification; Technology diffusion; Natural gas vehicles; adoption behavior; cost analysis; energy policy; natural gas; technological development; technology diffusion; vulnerability; Indonesia; Jakarta
来源期刊	Energy policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124862
作者单位	Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas, Indonesia; Policy Analysis Section, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands; Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas, Indonesia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hidayatno A.,Jafino B.A.,Setiawan A.D.,et al. When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles[J],2020,138.
APA	Hidayatno A.,Jafino B.A.,Setiawan A.D.,&Purwanto W.W..(2020).When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles.Energy policy,138.
MLA	Hidayatno A.,et al."When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles".Energy policy 138(2020).