气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111350
	A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways
	Michas S.; Stavrakas V.; Papadelis S.; Flamos A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	139
英文摘要	Efficient policymaking is crucial towards climate change mitigation. However, policies’ successful implementation depends largely on the context where they are applied. Classic decision-making used to be based on a static plan that was considered optimal for the “most likely” future contextual outcome. However, predicting the most probable evolution of this context has been proved unsuccessful, since it is vulnerable to unanticipated parameter change. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways can address this problem focusing on the design of short-term policies, with simultaneous definition of adaptive interventions to be chosen on the long-term. This article presents a transdisciplinary modeling framework, which builds on the original Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways methodology. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework the authors used it to explore the evolution of the small-scale solar photovoltaics share in Greece, towards the achievement of the national capacity targets of 2025 and 2030. Model outcomes facilitated the identification of several pathways achieving the capacity targets, while reducing the risk for retroactive policy changes. Overall, the presented study demonstrates potential to support the design of adaptive policies over contextual evolutions so that social, economic and technological aspects of integrative planning are balanced towards the achievement of climate targets. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Adaptive policies; Dynamic adaptive policy pathways; Emulation; Energy policy; Solar PV; Technology adoption
语种	英语
来源期刊	Energy policy
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124777
作者单位	Technoeconomics of Energy Systems Laboratory (TEESlab), Department of Industrial Management and Technology, University of Piraeus, Karaoli & Dimitriou 80, Piraeus, 18534, Greece
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Michas S.,Stavrakas V.,Papadelis S.,et al. A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways[J],2020,139.
APA	Michas S.,Stavrakas V.,Papadelis S.,&Flamos A..(2020).A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways.Energy policy,139.
MLA	Michas S.,et al."A transdisciplinary modeling framework for the participatory design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways".Energy policy 139(2020).