气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-019-0363-1
	Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations
	Olonscheck D.; Mauritsen T.; Notz D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
卷号	12 期号:6
英文摘要	The anthropogenically forced decline of Arctic sea ice is superimposed on strong internal variability. Possible drivers for this variability include fluctuations in surface albedo, clouds and water vapour, surface winds and poleward atmospheric and oceanic energy transport, but their relative contributions have not been quantified. By isolating the impact of the individual drivers in an Earth system model, we here demonstrate that internal variability of sea ice is primarily caused directly by atmospheric temperature fluctuations. The other drivers together explain only 25% of sea-ice variability. The dominating impact of atmospheric temperature fluctuations on sea ice is consistent across observations, reanalyses and simulations from global climate models. Such atmospheric temperature fluctuations occur due to variations in moist-static energy transport or local ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The fact that atmospheric temperature fluctuations are the key driver for sea-ice variability limits prospects of interannual predictions of sea ice, and suggests that observed record lows in Arctic sea-ice area are a direct response to an unusually warm atmosphere. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; albedo; energy balance; global climate; sea ice; sea surface temperature; water vapor; Arctic
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124657
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Olonscheck D.,Mauritsen T.,Notz D.. Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations[J],2019,12(6).
APA	Olonscheck D.,Mauritsen T.,&Notz D..(2019).Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations.Nature Geoscience,12(6).
MLA	Olonscheck D.,et al."Arctic sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric temperature fluctuations".Nature Geoscience 12.6(2019).