气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x
	Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change
	Mankin J.S.; Seager R.; Smerdon J.E.; Cook B.I.; Williams A.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; concentration (composition); evapotranspiration; global warming; midlatitude environment; precipitation (climatology); vegetation dynamics; water availability; water demand; water use efficiency; Asia; Europe; North America
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124557
作者单位	Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mankin J.S.,Seager R.,Smerdon J.E.,et al. Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change[J],2019,12(12).
APA	Mankin J.S.,Seager R.,Smerdon J.E.,Cook B.I.,&Williams A.P..(2019).Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change.Nature Geoscience,12(12).
MLA	Mankin J.S.,et al."Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change".Nature Geoscience 12.12(2019).