气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5
	Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy
	Tokarska K.B.; Schleussner C.-F.; Rogelj J.; Stolpe M.B.; Matthews H.D.; Pfleiderer P.; Gillett N.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap. © 2019, Crown.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; carbon budget; carbon dioxide; environmental policy; global warming; international agreement; science and technology; temperature profile
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124545
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Concordia University, Montréal, QC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tokarska K.B.,Schleussner C.-F.,Rogelj J.,et al. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy[J],2019,12(12).
APA	Tokarska K.B..,Schleussner C.-F..,Rogelj J..,Stolpe M.B..,Matthews H.D..,...&Gillett N.P..(2019).Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy.Nature Geoscience,12(12).
MLA	Tokarska K.B.,et al."Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy".Nature Geoscience 12.12(2019).