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| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
| Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends | |
| Zhang L.; Delworth T.L.; Cooke W.; Yang X. | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| ISSN | 1758678X |
| 卷号 | 9期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends. These observed trends are consistent with a particular phase of natural variability of the Southern Ocean as derived from climate model simulations. Ensembles of simulations are conducted starting from differing phases of this variability. The observed spatial pattern of trends is reproduced in simulations that start from an active phase of Southern Ocean convection. Simulations starting from a neutral phase do not reproduce the observed changes, similarly to the multimodel mean results of CMIP5 models. The long timescales associated with this natural variability show potential for skilful decadal prediction. © 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; CMIP; cooling; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; oceanic convection; sea ice; simulation; trend analysis; Southern Ocean |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124488 |
| 作者单位 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang L.,Delworth T.L.,Cooke W.,et al. Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends[J],2019,9(1). |
| APA | Zhang L.,Delworth T.L.,Cooke W.,&Yang X..(2019).Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends.Nature Climate Change,9(1). |
| MLA | Zhang L.,et al."Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends".Nature Climate Change 9.1(2019). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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