气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The social cost of lobbying over climate policy

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0489-6
	The social cost of lobbying over climate policy
	Meng K.C.; Rode A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:6
英文摘要	Domestic political processes shape climate policy. In particular, there is increasing concern about the role of political lobbying over climate policy. This paper examines how lobbying spending on the Waxman–Markey bill, the most prominent and promising United States climate regulation so far, altered its likelihood of being implemented. We combine data from comprehensive United States lobbying records with an empirical method for forecasting the policy’s effect on the value of publicly listed firms. Our statistical analysis suggests that lobbying by firms expecting losses from the policy was more effective than lobbying by firms expecting gains. Interpreting this finding through a game-theoretic model, we calculate that lobbying lowered the probability of enacting the Waxman–Markey bill by 13 percentage points, representing an expected social cost of US$60 billion (in 2018 US dollars). Our findings also suggest how future climate policy proposals can be designed to be more robust to political opposition. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	data assimilation; empirical analysis; environmental policy; game theory; lobbying; political discourse; social impact; statistical analysis; United States
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124396
作者单位	Department of Economics, Bren School, emLab, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Economics, Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meng K.C.,Rode A.. The social cost of lobbying over climate policy[J],2019,9(6).
APA	Meng K.C.,&Rode A..(2019).The social cost of lobbying over climate policy.Nature Climate Change,9(6).
MLA	Meng K.C.,et al."The social cost of lobbying over climate policy".Nature Climate Change 9.6(2019).