气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4
	Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes
	Blackport R.; Screen J.A.; van der Wiel K.; Bintanja R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:9
英文摘要	Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; experimental study; heat transfer; ice cover; sea ice; sea surface temperature; winter; Arctic
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124363
作者单位	College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, Groningen University, Groningen, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blackport R.,Screen J.A.,van der Wiel K.,et al. Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes[J],2019,9(9).
APA	Blackport R.,Screen J.A.,van der Wiel K.,&Bintanja R..(2019).Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes.Nature Climate Change,9(9).
MLA	Blackport R.,et al."Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes".Nature Climate Change 9.9(2019).