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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0540-7
	How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes
	Kelley D.I.; Bistinas I.; Whitley R.; Burton C.; Marthews T.R.; Dong N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:9
英文摘要	Anthropogenically driven declines in tropical savannah burnt area1,2 have recently received attention due to their effect on trends in global burnt area3,4. Large-scale trends in ecosystems where vegetation has adapted to infrequent fire, especially in cooler and wetter forested areas, are less well understood. Here, small changes in fire regimes can have a substantial impact on local biogeochemistry5. To investigate trends in fire across a wide range of ecosystems, we used Bayesian inference6 to quantify four primary controls on burnt area: fuel continuity, fuel moisture, ignitions and anthropogenic suppression. We found that fuel continuity and moisture are the dominant limiting factors of burnt area globally. Suppression is most important in cropland areas, whereas savannahs and boreal forests are most sensitive to ignitions. We quantify fire regime shifts in areas with more than one, and often counteracting, trends in these controls. Forests are of particular concern, where we show average shifts in controls of 2.3–2.6% of their potential maximum per year, mainly driven by trends in fuel continuity and moisture. This study gives added importance to understanding long-term future changes in the controls on fire and the effect of fire trends on ecosystem function. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124360
作者单位	Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; ATOS Nederland B.V., Amstelveen, Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Natural Perils Pricing, Commercial and Consumer Portfolio and Product, Suncorp Group, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kelley D.I.,Bistinas I.,Whitley R.,et al. How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes[J],2019,9(9).
APA	Kelley D.I.,Bistinas I.,Whitley R.,Burton C.,Marthews T.R.,&Dong N..(2019).How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes.Nature Climate Change,9(9).
MLA	Kelley D.I.,et al."How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes".Nature Climate Change 9.9(2019).