气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0
	Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world
	Pfleiderer P.; Schleussner C.-F.; Kornhuber K.; Coumou D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:9
英文摘要	Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming1–3. A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 °C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2–6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry–warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11–42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15–37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 °C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124359
作者单位	Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Water and Climate Risk, IVM, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pfleiderer P.,Schleussner C.-F.,Kornhuber K.,et al. Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world[J],2019,9(9).
APA	Pfleiderer P.,Schleussner C.-F.,Kornhuber K.,&Coumou D..(2019).Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world.Nature Climate Change,9(9).
MLA	Pfleiderer P.,et al."Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 °C world".Nature Climate Change 9.9(2019).