气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0578-6
	Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways
	Takakura J.; Fujimori S.; Hanasaki N.; Hasegawa T.; Hirabayashi Y.; Honda Y.; Iizumi T.; Kumano N.; Park C.; Shen Z.; Takahashi K.; Tamura M.; Tanoue M.; Tsuchida K.; Yokoki H.; Zhou Q.; Oki T.; Hijioka Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:10
英文摘要	There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124331
作者单位	Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan; Department of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan; Graduate School of Agriculture, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Japan; Department of Landscape Architecture, College of Urban Science, University of Seoul, Seoul, South Korea; Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University, Mito, Japan; Nippon Koei, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Engine...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Takakura J.,Fujimori S.,Hanasaki N.,et al. Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways[J],2019,9(10).
APA	Takakura J..,Fujimori S..,Hanasaki N..,Hasegawa T..,Hirabayashi Y..,...&Hijioka Y..(2019).Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways.Nature Climate Change,9(10).
MLA	Takakura J.,et al."Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways".Nature Climate Change 9.10(2019).