气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0583-9
	Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality
	Liu Y.; Kumar M.; Katul G.G.; Porporato A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:11
英文摘要	Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms causing mortality are not fully understood and empirical relations between climatology and mortality are subject to change. Here, we show that the temporal loss of resilience, a phenomenon often detected as a system approaches a tipping point, can be used as an early warning signal (EWS) to predict the likelihood of forest mortality directly from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. We tested the proposed approach on data from Californian forests and found that the EWS can often be detected before reduced greenness, between 6 to 19 months before mortality. The EWS shows a species-specific relation with mortality, and is able to capture its spatio-temporal variations. These findings highlight the potential for such an EWS to predict forest mortality in the near-term. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate effect; early warning system; empirical analysis; mortality; physiological response; prediction; remote sensing; spatiotemporal analysis; vegetation dynamics
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124316
作者单位	Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu Y.,Kumar M.,Katul G.G.,et al. Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality[J],2019,9(11).
APA	Liu Y.,Kumar M.,Katul G.G.,&Porporato A..(2019).Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality.Nature Climate Change,9(11).
MLA	Liu Y.,et al."Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality".Nature Climate Change 9.11(2019).