气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x
	The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models
	Lehner F.; Wood A.W.; Vano J.A.; Lawrence D.M.; Clark M.P.; Mankin J.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:12
英文摘要	Increasingly, climate change impact assessments rely directly on climate models. Assessments of future water security depend in part on how the land model components in climate models partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, and on the sensitivity of this partitioning to climate. Runoff sensitivities are not well constrained, with CMIP5 models displaying a large spread for the present day, which projects onto change under warming, creating uncertainty. Here we show that constraining CMIP5 model runoff sensitivities with observed estimates could reduce uncertainty in runoff projection over the western United States by up to 50%. We urge caution in the direct use of climate model runoff for applications and encourage model development to use regional-scale hydrological sensitivity metrics to improve projections for water security assessments. © 2019, Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; evapotranspiration; runoff; uncertainty analysis; United States
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124273
作者单位	Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Aspen Global Change Institute, Basalt, CO, United States; Coldwater Laboratory, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, AB, Canada; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lehner F.,Wood A.W.,Vano J.A.,et al. The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models[J],2019,9(12).
APA	Lehner F.,Wood A.W.,Vano J.A.,Lawrence D.M.,Clark M.P.,&Mankin J.S..(2019).The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models.Nature Climate Change,9(12).
MLA	Lehner F.,et al."The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models".Nature Climate Change 9.12(2019).