气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0600-z
	Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure
	Gaupp F.; Hall J.; Hochrainer-Stigler S.; Dadson S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	The risk of extreme climatic conditions leading to unusually low global agricultural production is exacerbated if more than one global ‘breadbasket’ is exposed at the same time. Such shocks can pose a risk to the global food system, amplifying threats to food security, and could potentially trigger other systemic risks1,2. While the possibility of climatic extremes hitting more than one breadbasket has been postulated3,4, little is known about the actual risk. Here we combine region-specific data on agricultural production with spatial statistics of climatic extremes to quantify the changing risk of low production for the major food-producing regions (breadbaskets) over time. We show an increasing risk of simultaneous failure of wheat, maize and soybean crops across the breadbaskets analysed. For rice, risks of simultaneous adverse climate conditions have decreased in the recent past, mostly owing to solar radiation changes favouring rice growth. Depending on the correlation structure between the breadbaskets, spatial dependence between climatic extremes globally can mitigate or aggravate the risks for the global food production. Our analysis can provide the basis for more efficient allocation of resources to contingency plans and/or strategic crop reserves that would enhance the resilience of the global food system. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124261
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gaupp F.,Hall J.,Hochrainer-Stigler S.,et al. Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure[J],2020,10(1).
APA	Gaupp F.,Hall J.,Hochrainer-Stigler S.,&Dadson S..(2020).Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure.Nature Climate Change,10(1).
MLA	Gaupp F.,et al."Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure".Nature Climate Change 10.1(2020).