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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0663-x
	The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming
	Li S.; Wu L.; Yang Y.; Geng T.; Cai W.; Gan B.; Chen Z.; Jing Z.; Wang G.; Ma X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the most prominent form of decadal variability over the North Pacific, characterized by its horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature anomaly pattern1,2. The PDO exerts a substantial influence on marine ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1–3. Through modulating global mean temperature, the phase shift of the PDO at the end of the twentieth century is suggested to be an influential factor in the recent surface warming hiatus4,5. Determining the predictability of the PDO in a warming climate is therefore of great importance6. By analysing future climate under different emission scenarios simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 7), we show that the prediction lead time and the associated amplitude of the PDO decrease sharply under greenhouse warming conditions. This decrease is largely attributable to a warming-induced intensification of oceanic stratification, which accelerates the propagation of Rossby waves, shortening the PDO lifespan and suppressing its amplitude by limiting its growth time. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will make prediction of the PDO more challenging, with far-reaching ramifications. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124257
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li S.,Wu L.,Yang Y.,et al. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming[J],2020,10(1).
APA	Li S..,Wu L..,Yang Y..,Geng T..,Cai W..,...&Ma X..(2020).The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming.Nature Climate Change,10(1).
MLA	Li S.,et al."The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming".Nature Climate Change 10.1(2020).