气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12876
	Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs
	Massoud E.C.; Huisman J.; Benincà E.; Dietze M.C.; Bouten W.; Vrugt J.A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	21 期号:1
英文摘要	The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Data assimilation; ecological models; ecosystems; food webs; forecast horizons; plankton; predator-prey
语种	英语
scopus关键词	biological model; ecology; ecosystem; food chain; plankton; population dynamics; Ecology; Ecosystem; Food Chain; Models, Biological; Plankton; Population Dynamics
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/121367
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-1075, United States; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, United States; Institute for Advanced Study, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-1075, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Massoud E.C.,Huisman J.,Benincà E.,et al. Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs[J],2018,21(1).
APA	Massoud E.C.,Huisman J.,Benincà E.,Dietze M.C.,Bouten W.,&Vrugt J.A..(2018).Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.Ecology Letters,21(1).
MLA	Massoud E.C.,et al."Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs".Ecology Letters 21.1(2018).