气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Indicators of transitions in biological systems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/ele.12948
	Indicators of transitions in biological systems
	Clements C.F.; Ozgul A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	21 期号:6
英文摘要	In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance-based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems – which are inherently complex and show low signal-to-noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Critical slowing down; early warning signals; leading indicators; predictive ecology; regime shifts; resilience; tipping points; traits
语种	英语
scopus关键词	autocorrelation; demography; detection method; early warning system; ecology; ecosystem resilience; nonlinearity; phenotype; research; signal-to-noise ratio; biological model; ecology; Ecology; Models, Biological
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/121317
作者单位	School of Biosciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia; Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Clements C.F.,Ozgul A.. Indicators of transitions in biological systems[J],2018,21(6).
APA	Clements C.F.,&Ozgul A..(2018).Indicators of transitions in biological systems.Ecology Letters,21(6).
MLA	Clements C.F.,et al."Indicators of transitions in biological systems".Ecology Letters 21.6(2018).