气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The diversity of population responses to environmental change

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13195
	The diversity of population responses to environmental change
	Colchero F.; Jones O.; Conde D.A.; Hodgson D.; Zajitschek F.; Schmidt B.R.; Malo A.F.; Alberts S.C.; Becker P.H.; Bouwhuis S.; Bronikowski A.M.; De Vleeschouwer K.M.; Delahay R.J.; Dummermuth S.; Fernández-Duque E.; Frisenvænge J.; Hesselsøe M.; Larson S.; Lemaître J.-F.; McDonald J.; Miller D.A.W.; O'Donnell C.; Packer C.; Raboy B.E.; Reading C.J.; Wapstra E.; Weimerskirch H.; While G.M.; Baudisch A.; Flatt T.; Coulson T.; Gaillard J.-M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	22 期号:2
英文摘要	The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct. © 2018 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
英文关键词	Age-structured population models; Bayesian inference; fecundity; mortality; survival
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; biodiversity; biological model; bird; climate change; demography; female; male; Markov chain; population dynamics; species extinction; Animals; Biodiversity; Birds; Climate Change; Demography; Extinction, Biological; Female; Male; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Stochastic Processes
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/121147
作者单位	Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Institute of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, Odense M, 5230, Denmark; Species360 Conservation Science Alliance, 7900 International Drive, Suite 1040, Bloomington, MN 55425, United States; Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9EZ, United Kingdom; Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Info Fauna Karch, UniMail, Bâtiment G, Bellevaux 51, Neuchâtel, 2000, Switzerland; Department of Zoology, Un...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Colchero F.,Jones O.,Conde D.A.,et al. The diversity of population responses to environmental change[J],2019,22(2).
APA	Colchero F..,Jones O..,Conde D.A..,Hodgson D..,Zajitschek F..,...&Gaillard J.-M..(2019).The diversity of population responses to environmental change.Ecology Letters,22(2).
MLA	Colchero F.,et al."The diversity of population responses to environmental change".Ecology Letters 22.2(2019).