气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13348
	Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications
	Briscoe N.J.; Elith J.; Salguero-Gómez R.; Lahoz-Monfort J.J.; Camac J.S.; Giljohann K.M.; Holden M.H.; Hradsky B.A.; Kearney M.R.; McMahon S.M.; Phillips B.L.; Regan T.J.; Rhodes J.R.; Vesk P.A.; Wintle B.A.; Yen J.D.L.; Guillera-Arroita G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	22 期号:11
英文摘要	Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process–explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process–explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs – regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species – we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Demography; mechanistic; population dynamics; process-based models; species distribution model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	demography; ecological approach; extinction risk; forecasting method; home range; invasive species; population distribution; population dynamics; population modeling; species occurrence; biological model; climate; climate change; demography; ecosystem; forecasting; Climate; Climate Change; Demography; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Models, Biological
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/121010
作者单位	School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, United States; The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, VIC, Australia; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Briscoe N.J.,Elith J.,Salguero-Gómez R.,et al. Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications[J],2019,22(11).
APA	Briscoe N.J..,Elith J..,Salguero-Gómez R..,Lahoz-Monfort J.J..,Camac J.S..,...&Guillera-Arroita G..(2019).Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications.Ecology Letters,22(11).
MLA	Briscoe N.J.,et al."Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications".Ecology Letters 22.11(2019).