气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13401
	Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse
	Lever J.J.; van de Leemput I.A.; Weinans E.; Quax R.; Dakos V.; van Nes E.H.; Bascompte J.; Scheffer M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species. While detecting upcoming transitions in such systems is challenging, predicting what comes after a critical transition is terra incognita altogether. The problem is that complex ecosystems may shift to many different, alternative states. Whether an impending transition has minor, positive or catastrophic effects is thus unclear. Some systems may, however, behave more predictably than others. The dynamics of mutualistic communities can be expected to be relatively simple, because delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Here, we address the question of whether this relative simplicity allows us to foresee a community's future state. As a case study, we use a model of a bipartite mutualistic network and show that a network's post-transition state is indicated by the way in which a system recovers from minor disturbances. Similar results obtained with a unipartite model of facilitation suggest that our results are of relevance to a wide range of mutualistic systems. © 2019 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd
英文关键词	critical slowing down; Critical transitions; ecological networks; forecasting; global environmental change; mutualistic communities; predictive ecology
语种	英语
scopus关键词	ecological approach; ecosystem dynamics; environmental change; facilitation; forecasting method; lacustrine environment; landscape ecology; mutualism; prediction; biological model; demography; ecosystem; forecasting; symbiosis; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Models, Biological; Residence Characteristics; Symbiosis
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120980
作者单位	Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, NL-6700 AA, Netherlands; Computational Science Lab, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, NL-1098 XH, Netherlands; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1012 GC, Netherlands; Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), BioDICée Team, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lever J.J.,van de Leemput I.A.,Weinans E.,et al. Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse[J],2020,23(1).
APA	Lever J.J..,van de Leemput I.A..,Weinans E..,Quax R..,Dakos V..,...&Scheffer M..(2020).Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse.Ecology Letters,23(1).
MLA	Lever J.J.,et al."Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse".Ecology Letters 23.1(2020).