气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal

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DOI	10.1111/ele.13459
	Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal
	Paniw M.; Childs D.Z.; Armitage K.B.; Blumstein D.T.; Martin J.G.A.; Oli M.K.; Ozgul A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1461023X
英文摘要	Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Bayesian population model; carry-over effects; demography; factor-analytic models; seasonal structured population models; viability
语种	英语
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120969
作者单位	Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, CH-8057, Switzerland; Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, Cerdanyola del Vallès, ES-08193, Spain; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom; Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Department, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045-7534, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81224, United States; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1N 9A7, Canada; Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paniw M.,Childs D.Z.,Armitage K.B.,et al. Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal[J],2020.
APA	Paniw M..,Childs D.Z..,Armitage K.B..,Blumstein D.T..,Martin J.G.A..,...&Ozgul A..(2020).Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal.Ecology Letters.
MLA	Paniw M.,et al."Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal".Ecology Letters (2020).