气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Accuracy of six years of operational statistical seasonal forecasts of rainfall in Western Australia (2013 to 2018)

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104697
	Accuracy of six years of operational statistical seasonal forecasts of rainfall in Western Australia (2013 to 2018)
	Evans F.H.; Guthrie M.M.; Foster I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	233
英文摘要	Because seasonal rainfall is the largest driver of grain production in Australia, forecasts of can increase the profitability of grain farms when used to inform on-farm decision making. Seasonal forecasting in the grainbelt of Western Australia (WA) is difficult because climate drivers that affect the Australian continent have little influence on the south-west corner. The Statistical Seasonal Forecast system was developed to provide skilful forecasts to assist on-farm decision making in the south-west of WA. It has now been operational from 2013 to 2018. This article describes the models and methods used to create forecasts, the results of forecast validation, and verification of the accuracy of six years of operational seasonal forecasts. Forecast validation was performed using leave-one-out cross-validation. It showed positive skill, lower for late spring and summer forecasts that rises in autumn and is highest for forecasting winter rainfall. Skill for forecasting growing season (May to October) is good for lead times of up to three months. Verified skill of the operational forecasts is lower than estimated using cross-validation. The operational system performed reasonably well at forecasting 3-month periods, and for most years it showed better skill than climatology. Verified skill for growing season forecasts is higher than that of forecasting any 3-month period, with higher skill in the south. With only a small sample of six years of forecasts, longer-term accuracy may be better or worse. To test whether declining accuracy is a risk, use of a less generous measure of forecast validation is recommended. © 2019
英文关键词	Forecast accuracy; Forecast validation; Forecast verification; Partial least squares regression; Seasonal rainfall; South-West Western Australia; Statistical seasonal forecast
学科领域	Decision making; Least squares approximations; Rain; Risk assessment; Statistical methods; Forecast accuracy; Forecast verifications; Partial least squares regression; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal rainfall; Western Australia; Forecasting; accuracy assessment; agricultural application; climatology; least squares method; rainfall; seasonal variation; statistical analysis; weather forecasting; Australia; Western Australia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Least squares approximations; Rain; Risk assessment; Statistical methods; Forecast accuracy; Forecast verifications; Partial least squares regression; Seasonal forecasts; Seasonal rainfall; Western Australia; Forecasting; accuracy assessment; agricultural application; climatology; least squares method; rainfall; seasonal variation; statistical analysis; weather forecasting; Australia; Western Australia
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120556
作者单位	Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Western Australia, 3 Baron-Hay Court, South Perth, WA 6151, Australia; Murdoch University, 90 South Street, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia; Centre for Digital Agriculture, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Evans F.H.,Guthrie M.M.,Foster I.. Accuracy of six years of operational statistical seasonal forecasts of rainfall in Western Australia (2013 to 2018)[J],2020,233.
APA	Evans F.H.,Guthrie M.M.,&Foster I..(2020).Accuracy of six years of operational statistical seasonal forecasts of rainfall in Western Australia (2013 to 2018).Atmospheric Research,233.
MLA	Evans F.H.,et al."Accuracy of six years of operational statistical seasonal forecasts of rainfall in Western Australia (2013 to 2018)".Atmospheric Research 233(2020).