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DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688
Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan
Khan N.; Shahid S.; Ahmed K.; Wang X.; Ali R.; Ismail T.; Nawaz N.
Date Issued2020
ISSN0169-8095
Volume233
Other AbstractPerformance of 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was assessed according to their ability to reconstruct the different properties of heat waves (HWs); HW frequency, HW duration and HW index estimated using Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) daily temperature data for the period 1961 to 2005 in order to generate an ensemble for the projection of HWs in Pakistan. The GCMs were selected based on three criteria: (1) ability to replicate the decadal variability in HW properties, (2) ability to reconstruct the spatial distribution of HW properties based on Taylor skill score, (3) replicate the annual time series of HW properties based on standard statistical indices and compromise programming. Results revealed four GCMs: CCSM4, CESM1(BGC), CMCC-CM and NorESM1-M are the most suitable for the projection of HWs over Pakistan. Projection of HWs using the selected GCMs revealed increase in the frequency and severity of HWs in most parts of Pakistan for both the radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios used in the study. The frequency of HWs was projected to increase up to 12 events per year while the duration was projected to increase up to 100 days in a year during 2060 to 2099 for the highest emission scenario. Overall, the HWs were projected to be more frequent and longer duration in the east and the southern coastal regions. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
enkeywordsClimate change projections; General circulation model; Gridded climate data; Heat waves; Pakistan
Subject AreaClimate change; Spatial distribution; Tantalum compounds; Climate change projections; Climate data; General circulation model; Heat waves; Pakistan; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; general circulation model; heat wave; reconstruction; spatial distribution; weather forecasting; Pakistan
Language英语
scopus keywordsClimate change; Spatial distribution; Tantalum compounds; Climate change projections; Climate data; General circulation model; Heat waves; Pakistan; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; general circulation model; heat wave; reconstruction; spatial distribution; weather forecasting; Pakistan
journalAtmospheric Research
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120554
AffiliationFaculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia; Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, Lasbela University of Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences (LUAWMS), Uthal, Balochistan 90150, Pakistan; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China; Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China; College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, China; Department of Petroleum, Koya Technical Institute, Erbil Polytechnic University, Erbil, Kurdistan 44001, Iraq
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Khan N.,Shahid S.,Ahmed K.,et al. Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan[J],2020,233.
APA Khan N..,Shahid S..,Ahmed K..,Wang X..,Ali R..,...&Nawaz N..(2020).Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan.Atmospheric Research,233.
MLA Khan N.,et al."Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan".Atmospheric Research 233(2020).
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