气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104805
	Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China
	Wang Q.; Xu Y.; Wang Y.; Zhang Y.; Xiang J.; Xu Y.; Wang J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	236
英文摘要	Land use/cover changes (LUCC) as well as climate change have the potential to significantly alter the characteristics of extreme hydrological events under changing environments. This study evaluates the individual and combined impacts that LUCC and climate change have on extreme hydrological events using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) applied in the Xitiaoxi River Basin (XRB). Two future land-use conditions, projected by CA-Markov model, and 21 climate scenarios, downscaled from three general circulation models, are considered. The results show that urban area would expand dramatically from 4.4% to 12.63%, which mainly occupy the forest-grass and agriculture land. The LUCC will decrease low flow index as well as increase high flow index, annual maximum 1-day and 5-day streamflow. Extreme precipitation indices all exhibit trends toward an increase in future occurrence. Furthermore, in testing the response of extreme hydrological events to climate change, most extreme hydrological indices are predicted to become greater than they were throughout the 1970s. The combined effects of LUCC and climate change would increase all extreme hydrological indices. Moreover, the climate change would contribute >50% of these hydrological impacts. These findings indicate that the XRB will experience more severe extreme hydrological events in both flooding and drought due to climate and land-use change. It is advised that disaster mitigation measures must be updated accordingly to respond to this changing situation. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	CA-Markov; Climate change; Hydrological extremes; LUCC; Statistical downscaling method; XRB
学科领域	Climate models; Land use; Markov processes; Precipitation (meteorology); CA-Markov; Extreme hydrological events; General circulation model; Hydrological extremes; Land use/cover change; LUCC; Soil and water assessment tool; Statistical downscaling; Climate change; climate change; downscaling; extreme event; hydrological modeling; land use planning; Markov chain; numerical model; precipitation (climatology); soil and water assessment tool; China; Xitiaoxi Basin; Yangtze River; Zhejiang
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Land use; Markov processes; Precipitation (meteorology); CA-Markov; Extreme hydrological events; General circulation model; Hydrological extremes; Land use/cover change; LUCC; Soil and water assessment tool; Statistical downscaling; Climate change; climate change; downscaling; extreme event; hydrological modeling; land use planning; Markov chain; numerical model; precipitation (climatology); soil and water assessment tool; China; Xitiaoxi Basin; Yangtze River; Zhejiang
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120483
作者单位	School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, 401331, China; School of Urban and Environmental Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an, 223300, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang Q.,Xu Y.,Wang Y.,et al. Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China[J],2020,236.
APA	Wang Q..,Xu Y..,Wang Y..,Zhang Y..,Xiang J..,...&Wang J..(2020).Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China.Atmospheric Research,236.
MLA	Wang Q.,et al."Individual and combined impacts of future land-use and climate conditions on extreme hydrological events in a representative basin of the Yangtze River Delta, China".Atmospheric Research 236(2020).