气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Nonstationarity impacts on frequency analysis of yearly and seasonal extreme temperature in Turkey

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104875
	Nonstationarity impacts on frequency analysis of yearly and seasonal extreme temperature in Turkey
	Aziz R.; Yucel I.; Yozgatligil C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	238
英文摘要	This study investigates the temporal variability in yearly and seasonal extreme temperatures across Turkey using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. The analyses are conducted using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel and Normal distributions for minimum and maximum temperatures during historical (1971–2016) and projection period (2051–2100). The future nonstationarity impacts are quantified using a 12-member ensemble of The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models (RCM) based on the worst emission scenario (RCP8.5). The ability to preserve the nonstationarity signals after bias-correction for selected RCMs are also presented. CORDEX ensemble members generally underestimated the temperature across all seven geographical regions of Turkey. The CORDEX-31 (HadGEM2-ES/CCLM) provided the most trustable temperature simulation in each region. GEV and Normal distributions exhibited a closer fit to each other but both distributions showed substantially better fit than Gumbel distribution for temperature extremes. Magnitudes of nonstationarity impacts (30-year return level) show strong spatial and seasonal variability. Notably higher magnitudes are observed for minimum temperature (up to +10 °C) than maximum temperature (up to +4 °C). Such positive impacts are more significant particularly in eastern Turkey for yearly and seasonal scales. This effect shows greater regional variability in the historical period but with increased temperature projection it is more homogenous and larger in the future period for each region. In the long term, nonstationarities, particularly in minimum temperatures might contribute to less snowpack, accelerate the time-shifts towards the earlier days of the year in snowmelt runoff peaks of streams, further dwindle the water availability during the summer season. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; CORDEX; Ensemble; Nonstationarity; RCM
学科领域	Climate change; Geographical regions; Normal distribution; CORDEX; Ensemble; Generalized extreme value; Increased temperature; Non-stationarities; Regional climate models; Regional downscaling; Temperature simulations; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; downscaling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; frequency analysis; numerical model; regional climate; seasonal variation; temperature profile; Turkey
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Geographical regions; Normal distribution; CORDEX; Ensemble; Generalized extreme value; Increased temperature; Non-stationarities; Regional climate models; Regional downscaling; Temperature simulations; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; downscaling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; frequency analysis; numerical model; regional climate; seasonal variation; temperature profile; Turkey
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120429
作者单位	Civil Engineering Department, Water Resources Lab., Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey; Statistics Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, 06800, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aziz R.,Yucel I.,Yozgatligil C.. Nonstationarity impacts on frequency analysis of yearly and seasonal extreme temperature in Turkey[J],2020,238.
APA	Aziz R.,Yucel I.,&Yozgatligil C..(2020).Nonstationarity impacts on frequency analysis of yearly and seasonal extreme temperature in Turkey.Atmospheric Research,238.
MLA	Aziz R.,et al."Nonstationarity impacts on frequency analysis of yearly and seasonal extreme temperature in Turkey".Atmospheric Research 238(2020).