气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104913
	Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset
	Almazroui M.; Khalid M.S.; Islam M.N.; Saeed S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	239
英文摘要	This study explores the seasonal to inter-seasonal and regional changes in temperature (and related uncertainties) over the Arabian Peninsula, by using the multi-model ensemble from the Couple Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The seasonal temperature changes are examined for three future periods (2030–2039; 2060–2069 and 2090–2099) with reference to the present climate (1971–2000). The 22-member CMIP5 mean multi-model ensemble (MME) shows a significant increase in temperature (at the 95% confidence level) over the Arabian Peninsula during all three future periods, under both RCPs. The results indicate that the southern and central regions of the Arabian Peninsula are likely to experience larger future temperature changes during the winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, amplification in future temperature changes over the northern and central regions of the Peninsula will more likely occur during the summer and autumn seasons. The inter-seasonal analysis of the MME shows large temperature biases during the winter (Dec-Feb) and summer (Jun Aug) months, while the simulated results closely resemble the observations during both transition periods i.e. spring (Mar-May) and autumn (Sep-Nov). The inter-seasonal results also reveal larger (smaller) temperature increases during September, October and November (March, April) for all future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results further indicate that the central region of the Arabian Peninsula will experience higher temperatures during all seasons in the 21st century. This information on changes in projected temperature is valuable for the long-term planning of the region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Arabian Peninsula; CMIP5 multi-models; Regions; Seasons; Temperature projection
学科领域	Climate models; Arabian Peninsula; Multi model; Regions; Seasons; Temperature projection; Electric power system interconnection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Arabian Peninsula; Multi model; Regions; Seasons; Temperature projection; Electric power system interconnection
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120409
作者单位	Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Almazroui M.,Khalid M.S.,Islam M.N.,et al. Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset[J],2020,239.
APA	Almazroui M.,Khalid M.S.,Islam M.N.,&Saeed S..(2020).Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset.Atmospheric Research,239.
MLA	Almazroui M.,et al."Seasonal and regional changes in temperature projections over the Arabian Peninsula based on the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble dataset".Atmospheric Research 239(2020).