气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-7-469-2013
	Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR
	Fettweis X.; Franco B.; Tedesco M.; Van Angelen J.H.; Lenaerts J.T.M.; Van Den Broeke M.R.; Gallée H.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	19940416
卷号	7 期号:2
英文摘要	To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4±2cm and +9±4cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt-elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks. © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120298
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium; City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research (IMAU), Utrecht University, Netherlands; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), Grenoble, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fettweis X.,Franco B.,Tedesco M.,et al. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR[J],2013,7(2).
APA	Fettweis X..,Franco B..,Tedesco M..,Van Angelen J.H..,Lenaerts J.T.M..,...&Gallée H..(2013).Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR.Cryosphere,7(2).
MLA	Fettweis X.,et al."Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR".Cryosphere 7.2(2013).