气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states

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DOI	10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013
	Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states
	Aschwanden A.; Aøalgeirsdóttir G.; Khroulev C.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	19940416
卷号	7 期号:4
英文摘要	Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum) can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change. © 2008 Author (s).
学科领域	assessment method; climate forcing; estimation method; hindcasting; ice sheet; qualitative analysis; simulation; Arctic; Greenland
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate forcing; estimation method; hindcasting; ice sheet; qualitative analysis; simulation; Arctic; Greenland
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120269
作者单位	Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aschwanden A.,Aøalgeirsdóttir G.,Khroulev C.. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states[J],2013,7(4).
APA	Aschwanden A.,Aøalgeirsdóttir G.,&Khroulev C..(2013).Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states.Cryosphere,7(4).
MLA	Aschwanden A.,et al."Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states".Cryosphere 7.4(2013).