气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties

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DOI	10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013
	Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties
	Mernild S.H.; Lipscomb W.H.; Bahr D.B.; Radić V.; Zemp M.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	19940416
卷号	7 期号:5
英文摘要	Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. © 2013 Author(s).
学科领域	climate effect; glacier dynamics; glacier mass balance; global perspective; ice cap; sampling; sea level change; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate effect; glacier dynamics; glacier mass balance; global perspective; ice cap; sampling; sea level change; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120252
作者单位	Climate Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Group, Computational Physics and Methods, Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States; Glaciology and Climate Change Laboratory, Center for Scientific Studies/Centro de Estudios Cientificos (CECs), Chile; Climate Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Group, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Institut für Geographie, Universität Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mernild S.H.,Lipscomb W.H.,Bahr D.B.,et al. Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties[J],2013,7(5).
APA	Mernild S.H.,Lipscomb W.H.,Bahr D.B.,Radić V.,&Zemp M..(2013).Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties.Cryosphere,7(5).
MLA	Mernild S.H.,et al."Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties".Cryosphere 7.5(2013).