气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-8-181-2014
	Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet
	Edwards T.L.; Fettweis X.; Gagliardini O.; Gillet-Chaulet F.; Goelzer H.; Gregory J.M.; Hoffman M.; Huybrechts P.; Payne A.J.; Perego M.; Price S.; Quiquet A.; Ritz C.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	19940416
卷号	8 期号:1
英文摘要	We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB-elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77 N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI:-0.22 to 1.33) kg m-3 a-1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m-3 a-1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (-0.03 to 0.23) kg m-3 a-1 in the north, and 0.07 (-0.07 to 0.59) kg m-3 a-1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014). © 2014 Author (s).
学科领域	ablation; assessment method; climate modeling; glacier mass balance; ice sheet; numerical model; parameterization; regional climate; sea level; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
语种	英语
scopus关键词	ablation; assessment method; climate modeling; glacier mass balance; ice sheet; numerical model; parameterization; regional climate; sea level; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120161
作者单位	Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Liege, Laboratory of Climatology, Allée du 6 Août, 2, 4000 Liège, Belgium; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement, UJF, CNRS, 54, rue Molière, 38402 Saint-Martin-d'Hères Cedex, France; Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France; Earth System Sciences and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, T3MSB216, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, 400 Dirac Science Library, Tallahassee, FL 32306, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Edwards T.L.,Fettweis X.,Gagliardini O.,et al. Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet[J],2014,8(1).
APA	Edwards T.L..,Fettweis X..,Gagliardini O..,Gillet-Chaulet F..,Goelzer H..,...&Ritz C..(2014).Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet.Cryosphere,8(1).
MLA	Edwards T.L.,et al."Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance-elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet".Cryosphere 8.1(2014).