气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain

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DOI	10.5194/tc-9-587-2015
	Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain
	Schirmer M.; Jamieson B.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	19940416
卷号	9 期号:2
英文摘要	Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are rarely verified for mountainous regions during the winter season, although avalanche forecasters and other decision makers frequently rely on NWP models. Winter precipitation from two NWP models (GEM-LAM and GEM15) and from a precipitation analysis system (CaPA) was verified at approximately 100 stations in the mountains of western Canada and the north-western US. Ultrasonic snow depth sensors and snow pillows were used to observe daily precipitation amounts. For the first time, a detailed objective validation scheme was performed highlighting many aspects of forecast quality. Overall, the models underestimated precipitation amounts, although low precipitation categories were overestimated. The finer resolution model GEM-LAM performed best in all analysed aspects of model performance, while the precipitation analysis system performed worst. An analysis of the economic value of large precipitation categories showed that only mitigation measures with low cost-loss ratios (i.e. measures that can be performed often) will benefit from these NWP models. This means that measures with large associated costs relative to anticipated losses when the measure is not performed should not or not primarily depend on forecasted precipitation. © Author(s) 2015.
学科领域	complex terrain; cost-benefit analysis; decision making; diurnal variation; numerical model; precipitation intensity; weather forecasting; Canada
语种	英语
scopus关键词	complex terrain; cost-benefit analysis; decision making; diurnal variation; numerical model; precipitation intensity; weather forecasting; Canada
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119939
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schirmer M.,Jamieson B.. Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain[J],2015,9(2).
APA	Schirmer M.,&Jamieson B..(2015).Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain.Cryosphere,9(2).
MLA	Schirmer M.,et al."Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain".Cryosphere 9.2(2015).