气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

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DOI	10.5194/tc-9-767-2015
	A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen
	Oerlemans J.; Van Pelt W.J.J.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	19940416
卷号	9 期号:2
英文摘要	The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989-2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year-1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and -20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster. © Author(s) 2015.
学科领域	climate modeling; climate prediction; glacier dynamics; ice core; ice retreat; mass balance; Arctic; Spitsbergen; Svalbard; Svalbard and Jan Mayen
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; glacier dynamics; ice core; ice retreat; mass balance; Arctic; Spitsbergen; Svalbard; Svalbard and Jan Mayen
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119913
作者单位	Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Norsk Polarinstitutt, Tromsø, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oerlemans J.,Van Pelt W.J.J.. A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen[J],2015,9(2).
APA	Oerlemans J.,&Van Pelt W.J.J..(2015).A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen.Cryosphere,9(2).
MLA	Oerlemans J.,et al."A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen".Cryosphere 9.2(2015).