气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

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DOI	10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015
	Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
	Cornford S.L.; Martin D.F.; Payne A.J.; Ng E.G.; Le Brocq A.M.; Gladstone R.M.; Edwards T.L.; Shannon S.R.; Agosta C.; Van Den Broeke M.R.; Hellmer H.H.; Krinner G.; Ligtenberg S.R.M.; Timmermann R.; Vaughan D.G.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	19940416
卷号	9 期号:4
英文摘要	We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. © Author(s) 2015.
学科领域	atmospheric modeling; emission; geoaccumulation; global warming; ice sheet; ice shelf; ice stream; melting; meteor; numerical model; sea level change; simulation; Amundsen Sea; Antarctica; Southern Ocean; Thwaites Glacier; West Antarctica
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; emission; geoaccumulation; global warming; ice sheet; ice shelf; ice stream; melting; meteor; numerical model; sea level change; simulation; Amundsen Sea; Antarctica; Southern Ocean; Thwaites Glacier; West Antarctica
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119839
作者单位	Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom; UJF-Grenoble 1/CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE) UMR5183, Grenoble, 38041, France; Département de Géographie, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bussestrasse 24, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany; British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cornford S.L.,Martin D.F.,Payne A.J.,et al. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate[J],2015,9(4).
APA	Cornford S.L..,Martin D.F..,Payne A.J..,Ng E.G..,Le Brocq A.M..,...&Vaughan D.G..(2015).Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate.Cryosphere,9(4).
MLA	Cornford S.L.,et al."Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate".Cryosphere 9.4(2015).