气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
	Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
	Wang W.; Rinke A.; Moore J.C.; Cui X.; Ji D.; Li Q.; Zhang N.; Wang C.; Zhang S.; Lawrence D.M.; McGuire A.D.; Zhang W.; Delire C.; Koven C.; Saito K.; MacDougall A.; Burke E.; Decharme B.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	19940416
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×104km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau. © Author(s) 2016.
学科领域	air temperature; environmental modeling; frost; land surface; model test; permafrost; snow cover; soil temperature; soil texture; uncertainty analysis; vegetation type; China; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; environmental modeling; frost; land surface; model test; permafrost; snow cover; soil temperature; soil texture; uncertainty analysis; vegetation type; China; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119709
作者单位	College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany; School of System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China; NCAR, Boulder, United States; US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, United States; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; GAME, Unité Mixte de Recherche CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex, France; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan;...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang W.,Rinke A.,Moore J.C.,et al. Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area[J],2016,10(1).
APA	Wang W..,Rinke A..,Moore J.C..,Cui X..,Ji D..,...&Decharme B..(2016).Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area.Cryosphere,10(1).
MLA	Wang W.,et al."Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area".Cryosphere 10.1(2016).