气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
	Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations
	Bathiany S.; Van Der Bolt B.; Williamson M.S.; Lenton T.M.; Scheffer M.; Van Nes E.H.; Notz D.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	19940416
卷号	10 期号:4
英文摘要	We examine the relationship between the mean and the variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage and volume in a large range of climates from globally ice-covered to globally ice-free conditions. Using a hierarchy of two column models and several comprehensive Earth system models, we consolidate the results of earlier studies and show that mechanisms found in simple models also dominate the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice in complex models. In contrast to predictions based on very idealised dynamical systems, we find a consistent and robust decrease of variance and autocorrelation of sea-ice volume before summer sea ice is lost. We attribute this to the fact that thinner ice can adjust more quickly to perturbations. Thereafter, the autocorrelation increases, mainly because it becomes dominated by the ocean water's large heat capacity when the ice-free season becomes longer. We show that these changes are robust to the nature and origin of climate variability in the models and do not depend on whether Arctic sea-ice loss occurs abruptly or irreversibly. We also show that our climate is changing too rapidly to detect reliable changes in autocorrelation of annual time series. Based on these results, the prospects of detecting statistical early warning signals before an abrupt sea-ice loss at a "tipping point" seem very limited. However, the robust relation between state and variability can be useful to build simple stochastic climate models and to make inferences about past and future sea-ice variability from only short observations or reconstructions.
学科领域	autocorrelation; climate change; cryosphere; early warning system; heat capacity; ice cover; ice free corridor; sea ice; statistical analysis; volume change; Arctic Ocean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	autocorrelation; climate change; cryosphere; early warning system; heat capacity; ice cover; ice free corridor; sea ice; statistical analysis; volume change; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119610
作者单位	Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, PB Wageningen, 6708, Netherlands; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bathiany S.,Van Der Bolt B.,Williamson M.S.,et al. Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations[J],2016,10(4).
APA	Bathiany S..,Van Der Bolt B..,Williamson M.S..,Lenton T.M..,Scheffer M..,...&Notz D..(2016).Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations.Cryosphere,10(4).
MLA	Bathiany S.,et al."Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability-prospects and limitations".Cryosphere 10.4(2016).