气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland

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DOI	10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016
	Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland
	Marmy A.; Rajczak J.; Delaloye R.; Hilbich C.; Hoelzle M.; Kotlarski S.; Lambiel C.; Noetzli J.; Phillips M.; Salzmann N.; Staub B.; Hauck C.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	19940416
卷号	10 期号:6
英文摘要	Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site-specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing. © Author(s) 2016.
学科领域	calibration; climate change; degradation; heterogeneity; mountain environment; permafrost; regional climate; thawing; Alps; Switzerland
语种	英语
scopus关键词	calibration; climate change; degradation; heterogeneity; mountain environment; permafrost; regional climate; thawing; Alps; Switzerland
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119548
作者单位	Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marmy A.,Rajczak J.,Delaloye R.,et al. Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland[J],2016,10(6).
APA	Marmy A..,Rajczak J..,Delaloye R..,Hilbich C..,Hoelzle M..,...&Hauck C..(2016).Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland.Cryosphere,10(6).
MLA	Marmy A.,et al."Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland".Cryosphere 10.6(2016).