气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties

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DOI	10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2017-2(3-10)
	Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties
	Anisimov O.A.; Kokorev V.A.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	15607496
卷号	21 期号:2
英文摘要	The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961-1990 and 2004-2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961-1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.
英文关键词	Active layer thickness; Modeling; Permafrost regions; Stochastic projection; Variability
学科领域	active layer; air temperature; ice thickness; modeling; permafrost; stochasticity; twenty first century; uncertainty analysis; Russian Federation; Yamalo-Nenets
语种	英语
scopus关键词	active layer; air temperature; ice thickness; modeling; permafrost; stochasticity; twenty first century; uncertainty analysis; Russian Federation; Yamalo-Nenets
来源期刊	Earth's Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119518
作者单位	State Hydrological Institute, 23, Second Line V.O., St. Petersburg, 199053, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Anisimov O.A.,Kokorev V.A.. Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties[J],2017,21(2).
APA	Anisimov O.A.,&Kokorev V.A..(2017).Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties.Earth's Cryosphere,21(2).
MLA	Anisimov O.A.,et al."Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties".Earth's Cryosphere 21.2(2017).