气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

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DOI	10.5194/tc-11-517-2017
	How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps
	Marty C.; Schlögl S.; Bavay M.; Lehning M.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	19940416
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %). © 2017 Author(s).
学科领域	catchment; climate change; elevation; emission; future prospect; ice thickness; precipitation (climatology); snow cover; temperature profile; three-dimensional modeling; time series analysis; Alps; Switzerland
语种	英语
scopus关键词	catchment; climate change; elevation; emission; future prospect; ice thickness; precipitation (climatology); snow cover; temperature profile; three-dimensional modeling; time series analysis; Alps; Switzerland
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119436
作者单位	WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, 7260, Switzerland; École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marty C.,Schlögl S.,Bavay M.,et al. How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps[J],2017,11(1).
APA	Marty C.,Schlögl S.,Bavay M.,&Lehning M..(2017).How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps.Cryosphere,11(1).
MLA	Marty C.,et al."How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps".Cryosphere 11.1(2017).