气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-12-675-2018
	Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC
	Ono J.; Tatebe H.; Komuro Y.; Nodzu M.I.; Ishii M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. © 2018 Author(s).
学科领域	annual variation; concentration (composition); heat transfer; hindcasting; interdisciplinary approach; sea ice; seasonal variation; subsurface flow; water flow; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Chukchi Sea; East Siberian Sea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; concentration (composition); heat transfer; hindcasting; interdisciplinary approach; sea ice; seasonal variation; subsurface flow; water flow; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Chukchi Sea; East Siberian Sea
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119213
作者单位	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan; Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, 192-0397, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ono J.,Tatebe H.,Komuro Y.,et al. Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC[J],2018,12(2).
APA	Ono J.,Tatebe H.,Komuro Y.,Nodzu M.I.,&Ishii M..(2018).Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC.Cryosphere,12(2).
MLA	Ono J.,et al."Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC".Cryosphere 12.2(2018).