气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions

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DOI	10.5194/tc-12-2229-2018
	A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions
	Gopalan G.; Hrafnkelsson B.; Aoalgeirsdóttir G.; Jarosch A.H.; Pálsson F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:7
英文摘要	Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatiotemporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error-correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier. © 2018 Author(s).
学科领域	analytical method; Bayesian analysis; error analysis; finite difference method; glacier dynamics; hierarchical system; model; simulation; valuation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	analytical method; Bayesian analysis; error analysis; finite difference method; glacier dynamics; hierarchical system; model; simulation; valuation
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119108
作者单位	Faculty of Physical Sciences, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland; Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gopalan G.,Hrafnkelsson B.,Aoalgeirsdóttir G.,et al. A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions[J],2018,12(7).
APA	Gopalan G.,Hrafnkelsson B.,Aoalgeirsdóttir G.,Jarosch A.H.,&Pálsson F..(2018).A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions.Cryosphere,12(7).
MLA	Gopalan G.,et al."A Bayesian hierarchical model for glacial dynamics based on the shallow ice approximation and its evaluation using analytical solutions".Cryosphere 12.7(2018).