气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018
	A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers
	Emetc V.; Tregoning P.; Morlighem M.; Borstad C.; Sambridge M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:10
英文摘要	Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119055
作者单位	Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, United States; Department of Arctic Geophysics, University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Emetc V.,Tregoning P.,Morlighem M.,et al. A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers[J],2018,12(10).
APA	Emetc V.,Tregoning P.,Morlighem M.,Borstad C.,&Sambridge M..(2018).A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers.Cryosphere,12(10).
MLA	Emetc V.,et al."A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers".Cryosphere 12.10(2018).