气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018
	What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing
	Laliberté F.; Howell S.E.L.; Lemieux J-F.; Dupont F.; Lei J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:11
英文摘要	Arctic landfast ice extent and duration are examined from observations, ice assimilations, ocean reanalyses and coupled models. From observations and assimilations, it is shown that in areas where landfast ice conditions last more than 5 months the first-year ice typically grows to more than 2 m and is rarely less than 1 m. The observed spatial distribution of landfast ice closely matches assimilation products but less so for ocean reanalyses and coupled models. Although models generally struggle to represent the landfast ice necessary to emulate the observed import/export of sea ice in regions favourable to landfast ice conditions, some do exhibit both a realistic climatology and a realistic decline of landfast ice extent under an anthropogenic forcing scenario. In these more realistic simulations, projections show that an extensive landfast ice cover should remain for at least 5 months of the year, well into the end of the 21st century. This is in stark contrast with the simulations that have an unrealistic emulation of landfast ice conditions. In these simulations, slow and packed ice conditions shrink markedly over the same period. In all simulations and in areas with landfast ice that lasts more than 5 months, the end-of-winter sea ice thickness remains between 1 and 2 m, well beyond the second half of the century. It is concluded that in the current generation of climate models, projections of winter sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Laptev Sea are overly sensitive to the representation of landfast ice conditions and that ongoing development in landfast ice parameterization will likely better constrain these projections. © 2018 Author(s).
学科领域	anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; climatology; data assimilation; historical perspective; ice; ice cover; ice thickness; marginal sea; sea ice; spatial distribution; twenty first century; Arctic Ocean; Canada; Canadian Arctic; Laptev Sea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; climatology; data assimilation; historical perspective; ice; ice cover; ice thickness; marginal sea; sea ice; spatial distribution; twenty first century; Arctic Ocean; Canada; Canadian Arctic; Laptev Sea
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119033
作者单位	Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Recherche en Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Service Méteórologique Canadien, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Laliberté F.,Howell S.E.L.,Lemieux J-F.,et al. What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing[J],2018,12(11).
APA	Laliberté F.,Howell S.E.L.,Lemieux J-F.,Dupont F.,&Lei J..(2018).What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing.Cryosphere,12(11).
MLA	Laliberté F.,et al."What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing".Cryosphere 12.11(2018).