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DOI	10.5194/tc-12-3747-2018
	The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent
	Zhang Y.; Cheng X.; Liu J.; Hui F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	The Arctic sea ice extent throughout the melt season is closely associated with initial sea ice state in winter and spring. Sea ice leads are important sites of energy fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, which may play an important role in the evolution of Arctic sea ice. In this study, we examine the potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent forecast using a recently developed daily sea ice lead product retrieved from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results show that July pan-Arctic sea ice extent can be predicted from the area of sea ice leads integrated from midwinter to late spring, with a prediction error of 0.28 million km2 that is smaller than the standard deviation of the observed interannual variability. However, the predictive skills for August and September pan-Arctic sea ice extent are very low. When the area of sea ice leads integrated in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic is used, it has a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) with both July and August sea ice extent in the Atlantic and central and west Siberian sector of the Arctic. Thus, the realistic representation of sea ice leads (e.g., the areal coverage) in numerical prediction systems might improve the skill of forecast in the Arctic region.
学科领域	annual variation; energy flux; ice lead; MODIS; sea ice; seasonal variation; summer; Arctic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Siberia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; energy flux; ice lead; MODIS; sea ice; seasonal variation; summer; Arctic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Siberia
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119022
作者单位	College of Global Change and Earth System Science, State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing, 100875, China; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, United States; University Corporation for Polar Research, Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Y.,Cheng X.,Liu J.,et al. The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent[J],2018,12(12).
APA	Zhang Y.,Cheng X.,Liu J.,&Hui F..(2018).The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent.Cryosphere,12(12).
MLA	Zhang Y.,et al."The potential of sea ice leads as a predictor for summer Arctic sea ice extent".Cryosphere 12.12(2018).