气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws

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DOI	10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018
	Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws
	Yu H.; Rignot E.; Seroussi H.; Morlighem M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica, has experienced rapid, potentially irreversible grounding line retreat and mass loss in response to enhanced ice shelf melting. Results from recent numerical models suggest a large spread in the evolution of the glacier in the coming decades to a century. It is therefore important to investigate how different approximations of the ice stress balance, parameterizations of basal friction and ice shelf melt parameterizations may affect projections. Here, we simulate the evolution of TG using ice sheet models of varying levels of complexity, different basal friction laws and ice shelf melt to quantify their effect on the projections. We find that the grounding line retreat and its sensitivity to ice shelf melt are enhanced when a full-Stokes model is used, a Budd friction is used and ice shelf melt is applied on partially floating elements. Initial conditions also impact the model results. Yet, all simulations suggest a rapid, sustained retreat of the glacier along the same preferred pathway. The fastest retreat rate occurs on the eastern side of the glacier, and the slowest retreat occurs across a subglacial ridge on the western side. All the simulations indicate that TG will undergo an accelerated retreat once the glacier retreats past the western subglacial ridge. Combining all the simulations, we find that the uncertainty of the projections is small in the first 30 years, with a cumulative contribution to sea level rise of 5 mm, similar to the current rate. After 30 years, the contribution to sea level depends on the model configurations, with differences up to 300 % over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
学科领域	bottom friction; flow modeling; glacier retreat; grounding line; ice flow; ice sheet; ice shelf; melting; parameterization; simulation; Antarctica; Thwaites Glacier; West Antarctica
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bottom friction; flow modeling; glacier retreat; grounding line; ice flow; ice sheet; ice shelf; melting; parameterization; simulation; Antarctica; Thwaites Glacier; West Antarctica
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119014
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu H.,Rignot E.,Seroussi H.,et al. Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws[J],2018,12(12).
APA	Yu H.,Rignot E.,Seroussi H.,&Morlighem M..(2018).Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws.Cryosphere,12(12).
MLA	Yu H.,et al."Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, over the next 100 years using various ice flow models, ice shelf melt scenarios and basal friction laws".Cryosphere 12.12(2018).