气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow region: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS and UNCERTAINTIES in FORECASTING for the SECOND HALF of the 21st CENTURY [ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА МНОГОЛЕТНЮЮ ДИНАМИКУ СЕЗОННОГО ПРОМЕРЗАНИЯ В МОСКОВСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА НА ВТОРУЮ ПОЛОВИНУ XXI ВЕКА]

CCPortal

DOI	10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2019-4(26-35)
	Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow region: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS and UNCERTAINTIES in FORECASTING for the SECOND HALF of the 21st CENTURY [ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА МНОГОЛЕТНЮЮ ДИНАМИКУ СЕЗОННОГО ПРОМЕРЗАНИЯ В МОСКОВСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА НА ВТОРУЮ ПОЛОВИНУ XXI ВЕКА]
	Pozdnyakov S.P.; Grinevskyi S.O.; Dediulina E.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	15607496
卷号	23 期号:4
英文摘要	A quantitative analysis of the forecast dynamics of seasonal freezing depth in the 21st century has been carried out using climate projections obtained by 5 models of the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model from the CMIP5 model ensemble. This analysis is based on the simulation of snow cover dynamics on the surface and coupled vertical heat transfer and unsaturated water flow in the topsoil and the underlying zone. The thermophysical and hydrophysical input parameters were obtained from the inversing of the temperature data at observation sites on the territory of the Moscow State University Zvenigorod Biological Station. The epignosic simulations of freezing depth during the period of 1945-2015 have shown a decreasing trend for a period starting from 1940s through the early 1990s, with its subsequent stabilization in the late 20th and early 21st century. Predictions of seasonal freezing depth for the second half of the 21st century involved generation of three stationary meteorological time series of diurnal resolution (each spanning one hundred years for the periods of 2020-2040, 2040-2060 and 2060-2080) for all of the circulation models utilizing the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario. These series were used as boundary conditions in modeling of intra-annual dynamics of the snow cover depth at earth's surface, and heat and moisture transfer dynamics in the underlying subsurface zone. The simulation results analysis revealed reduction of the thickness of the seasonally frozen layer and reduction by at least a month (by the 2060s and 2080s of the 21st century) of soil freezing duration due to the earlier onset of steady air temperatures above zero degrees Celsius in spring. Given those results of the heat transfer and water flow simulations for five different climate projections still differ significantly one from other, they do not allow to provide any reliable predictions of the long-term dynamics of seasonal freezing depth in the second half of the 21st century. © 2019 Academic Publishing House Geo. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Depth of freezing; Heat transfer; Modeling; Seasonally frozen layer; The thermal regime of soil; Unsaturated zone
学科领域	climate change; climate effect; freezing; frozen ground; heat transfer; modeling; seasonal variation; thermal regime; topsoil; vadose zone; Moscow [(ADS) Russian Federation]; Russian Federation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate effect; freezing; frozen ground; heat transfer; modeling; seasonal variation; thermal regime; topsoil; vadose zone; Moscow [(ADS) Russian Federation]; Russian Federation
来源期刊	Earth's Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118978
作者单位	Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geology, Department of Hydrogeology, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pozdnyakov S.P.,Grinevskyi S.O.,Dediulina E.A.. Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow region: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS and UNCERTAINTIES in FORECASTING for the SECOND HALF of the 21st CENTURY [ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА МНОГОЛЕТНЮЮ ДИНАМИКУ СЕЗОННОГО ПРОМЕРЗАНИЯ В МОСКОВСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА НА ВТОРУЮ ПОЛОВИНУ XXI ВЕКА][J],2019,23(4).
APA	Pozdnyakov S.P.,Grinevskyi S.O.,&Dediulina E.A..(2019).Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow region: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS and UNCERTAINTIES in FORECASTING for the SECOND HALF of the 21st CENTURY [ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА МНОГОЛЕТНЮЮ ДИНАМИКУ СЕЗОННОГО ПРОМЕРЗАНИЯ В МОСКОВСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА НА ВТОРУЮ ПОЛОВИНУ XXI ВЕКА].Earth's Cryosphere,23(4).
MLA	Pozdnyakov S.P.,et al."Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow region: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS and UNCERTAINTIES in FORECASTING for the SECOND HALF of the 21st CENTURY [ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ НА МНОГОЛЕТНЮЮ ДИНАМИКУ СЕЗОННОГО ПРОМЕРЗАНИЯ В МОСКОВСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ: РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ ПРОГНОЗА НА ВТОРУЮ ПОЛОВИНУ XXI ВЕКА]".Earth's Cryosphere 23.4(2019).