气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models

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DOI	10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
	Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models
	Mioduszewski J.R.; Vavrus S.; Wang M.; Holland M.; Landrum L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
EISSN	13
起始页码	113
结束页码	124
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	The diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied, but previous research has mostly focused on time-mean changes in sea ice rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that future interannual Arctic sea ice area variability will increase by utilizing 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) for the 1920-2100 period and augment this with simulations from 12 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both CESM-LE and CMIP5 models project that ice area variability will indeed grow substantially but not monotonically in every month. There is also a strong seasonal dependence in the magnitude and timing of future variability increases that is robust among CESM ensemble members. The variability generally correlates with the average ice retreat rate, before there is an eventual disappearance in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal in summer and autumn by late century. The peak in variability correlates best with the total area of ice between 0.2 and 0.6 m monthly thickness, indicating that substantial future thinning of the ice pack is required before variability maximizes. Within this range, the most favorable thickness for high areal variability depends on the season, especially whether ice growth or ice retreat processes dominate. Our findings suggest that thermodynamic melting (top, bottom, lateral) and growth (frazil, congelation) processes are more important than dynamical mechanisms, namely ice export and ridging, in controlling ice area variability. © Author(s) 2019.
学科领域	annual variation; climate modeling; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; hypothesis testing; ice retreat; melting; sea ice; simulation; Arctic Ocean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate modeling; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; hypothesis testing; ice retreat; melting; sea ice; simulation; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118949
作者单位	Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mioduszewski J.R.,Vavrus S.,Wang M.,et al. Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models[J],2019,13(1).
APA	Mioduszewski J.R.,Vavrus S.,Wang M.,Holland M.,&Landrum L..(2019).Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models.The Cryosphere,13(1).
MLA	Mioduszewski J.R.,et al."Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models".The Cryosphere 13.1(2019).