气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change

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DOI	10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
	Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change
	Bulthuis K.; Arnst M.; Sun S.; Pattyn F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
EISSN	13
起始页码	1349
结束页码	1380
卷号	13 期号:4
英文摘要	Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of MISI in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty, and that, almost irrespective of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
学科领域	bedrock; climate change; ice sheet; instability; melting; numerical model; probability; quantitative analysis; sea level change; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bedrock; climate change; ice sheet; instability; melting; numerical model; probability; quantitative analysis; sea level change; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118888
作者单位	Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Liège, 4000, Belgium; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bulthuis K.,Arnst M.,Sun S.,et al. Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change[J],2019,13(4).
APA	Bulthuis K.,Arnst M.,Sun S.,&Pattyn F..(2019).Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change.The Cryosphere,13(4).
MLA	Bulthuis K.,et al."Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change".The Cryosphere 13.4(2019).